Gotta admit, I found both articles very interesting, but even though there's a persistent doomsaying tone, I'm not feelin' the worry. I'll get to why in a minute. First, here's some of the first article, with the charming, not-at-all alarmist title: "Fitting Network TV For a Toe Tag."
So network TV and the act of being everything to everybody is dead, but cable's topped out and may be next. Okay. Check.It may be time to perform an autopsy on network TV, which some have pronounced officially dead at age 60, the victim of a lifetime of big spending, hard living, and bad planning. Here's the coroner's report: The evening newscasts have been mowed down by cable's heat, spin, and round-the-clock immediacy. In prime time, nobody watches reruns anymore—and reruns, along with syndication, used to be the only way comedy and drama series, the heart of a network's prime-time business, made money. (The way they make money now is...well, the networks will get back to you as soon as they figure that out.)
Speaking of old-school, half-hour sitcoms: Once, 50 of them were on the air at a time. Today, they're all but gone. Suddenly, people just stopped liking them. Prime-time news magazines? Barely holding on. "Protected" time slots? Viewers accustomed to Web surfing and channel flipping at hyperspeed aren't going to watch a new show just because they're too lazy to change the channel after The Biggest Loser. The audience for daytime soaps, a profitable staple since TV's infancy, has shrunk so dramatically that the form may vanish within a few years. This is all very bad news for a medium that hasn't come up with a fresh format since 2000, when CBS launched Survivor, the gold rush in reality-TV competitions. (P.S.: Survivor isn’t what it used to be either.)
It's unlikely that a broadcast network is ever again going to create a megahit like The Cosby Show, which at its mid-’80s peak drew as many as 50 million viewers an episode. For several years now, TV's top event has been Fox's American Idol. Last season, it drew 28.8 million viewers a week.
Conversations about the future of television tend to vault way past next week or next year into a world where schedules don't exist and 10,000 programming options are all available at any moment, half of them fully interactive. (Not enjoying this episode of Law & Order: Moonbase? That's OK—you can change the plot!)
It sounds like fun. But in reality, the number of cable channels has topped out. And the number of households that subscribe to basic cable—about 65 million—hasn't budged for a decade. That's roughly 58 percent of all American TV households and it's a much higher percentage of the total households that advertisers actually care about. People who have something to sell are attracted to viewers who have already demonstrated their willingness to buy something (like cable TV). The cable business is booming: Annual advertising revenues have jumped from $8.1 billion in 1997 to a projected $28.6 billion this year.
Why am I not so concerned?
Well, a couple reasons. First, there's concern fatigue. See, I'm of a generation who's been told their whole lives that it was the worst time for everything.
There were fewer of us, sandwiched as we were between the "look at me" Baby boomers and their kids. So when I was younger, after I outgrew "kids programs" there wasn't really a lot of programs aimed directly at me. It was not a great time for "tween" tv. The word tween didn't exist. I watched M*A*S*H and Three's Company reruns and tracked my growing maturity by when I finally cottoned onto the fact that the former was a whole lot funnier than the latter.
When I was in High School, it was generally acknowledged that it was one of the worst times for fashion, and music. And just as people my age were about to start having sex for the first time, we were told it was the worst time ever to have sex in like, 40 years, because even though there was the pill, now Sex was going to kill you.
Then I went to University, and tuition was rising and it was a bad time. I got out in the middle of a recession. Worst time to seek a job. I quit my job and decided to be a writer for TV in Canada a year or two after the networks successfully bamboozled the CRTC into changing the rules so that they didn't have to do drama anymore. Dramas disappeared from Canadian airwaves. Worst time to try and be a writer.
Oh, and the first run syndication market collapsed.
So, you know, I've heard about worst case scenarios before. And yes, in Canada we have a government now who's absolutely hostile to anything cultural. And the dollar's strong, so Americans aren't coming here to shoot anymore.
And I say, "enough."
The reality is that in our history of media, there are some important distinctions to make, but they're not going to necessarily kill you, especially if you're a sensitive creative type.
When a new medium comes along, it does not replace an old medium. Television did not kill Radio. Television did not kill film. Film did not kill live theatre. And despite what you read, P2P and the Ipod did not kill music.
All of these things still exist and people still make money doing them. There are people doing theatre. There are careers in Radio, and there are musicans doing what they do...making music.
What we're really nervous about, is systems. Theatre didn't die, but Vaudeville did. Radio did not die, but Drama on radio did. Music didn't die, but packaged media, and the CD format, and huge expensive accounts and questionable accounting for major labels...well, it'd be rude to pronounce it yet, cause there's still breath on that little mirror. Barely.
Television will not die.
Network TV? Yeah, that might be toast.
But if you're creative, that's not your problem. I don't think Alex is going to have to start writing speeches. And neither do I think we're all going to go to pay-per-view. If you're a creative person, you should look at all the articles like the one above and keep abreast of what's going down...but don't get all suicidey about it.
Because it aint you they're coming for.
Now there are those who stand to lose. The writer boom of the 90's, with sick, crazy money -- is done. But that was over already. But the tradeoff is that maybe the cable series you write is more fulfilling creatively. Whatevs.
I don't necessarily think that the whole thing is going to be people working harder and harder in the salt mines to come up with content -- because it's hard enough. If you're smart enough and talented enough to be good at writing for TV, if that doesn't pay, you'll find a way to be good at writing for something else. And you're telling me that things like The Dark Knight are never going to happen again? The new reality is exactly the same as the old. What the market will bear. And once a market emerges, if more than one person wants what you're selling, you're gonna make dosh.
Maybe it won't be, you know, small South American Country GDP dosh, but what would I do with eight houses anyway?
What's interesting is that if you read the rest of the article, and then think about it in terms of the article on branding I came up with a couple weeks ago, the inescapable conclusion is this:
You think the U.S. networks are screwed?
That's nothing compared to Canada.
We're already the last place that scoops up all those U.S. shows, no matter how crappy. Everybody else in the world these days waits to see what shakes out -- waits for the C.S.I.'s to rise above the Kidnappped's, before buying in.
Now they've got a business model with nothing else behind it, based on someone else's decision making. I would HATE to be a Canadian network person right now. They've never really had to think about their business before, and now it's almost too late.
And come to think of it, it's not like the Cable Lords are doing much better. I mean, how badly has Rogers handled the IPhone intro? And bungled the attempt to bring NFL games to Canada? And Shaw certainly has his little P.R. problems, too.
These are the captains of industry? And every newspaper article you read has plenty of trogs complaining about artists with their head in the trough. (Not, you know, networks asking for money on your cable bill or continued protections, or cable co's demanding that their protected monopolies continue.)
Interesting times, man. My skill's portable. I'm fine, Chico. It aint me you're looking for, babe.
The casualties to come are the people who insist that carbon paper will live forever. If you can write, or direct, or act -- relax, you're going to be fine. You may have to move -- because the people running your government or your regulatory organizations or your BDU's aren't exactly stone cold Brainiacs, but hey, that's hardly the same thing.
The second article, on Web series, is arguably more interesting. And here's the most interesting bit to me, at least from a craft point of view:
A seasoned film and television writer, Friedman left Hollywood three years ago for Electronic Arts, where he wrote the best-selling Command & Conquer 3: Tiberium Wars and the soon-to-be-released Tiberium. At EA, he had to relearn scriptwriting, because the conventions of TV don't work in interactive media. In a one-hour drama, he explains, "you put the characters together over some beers and let them bring out the plot. It's exposition disguised as dialog." But games dispense with the entire first act, the part that sets the plot in motion. "When the story begins, you're in-world — you have a gun, all hell is breaking loose, and your job as a player is to stay alive and figure out where you are." Web video gets subjected to that same compression algorithm. "We're starting every episode with Anna on the run," Friedman says. "She's already in the second act — the part where everything goes wrong."See, the writing part is interesting to me, about starting in the 2nd act. But the whole experiential thing? Uh. I guess. I don't know. Really? Be interesting to see if he's right. And if he is, fine. I'll adapt. And so will you.But Friedman's ambition is to merge television with videogames in a form of storytelling that engages audience members on multiple levels — and not just with the narrative but with each other. So while Anna dodges "sims" (simulated life-forms, with their telltale orange stigmata) and agents from the mysterioso outfit known as Gemini Division, fans will be able to log on to the show's Web site and get transmissions from Anna's partner in the police department. Users will be recruited as Gemini agents themselves, at which point they can talk with other agents — er, users — by webcam. "I think this is where entertainment is heading," he says. "It's where I want entertainment to head, because that's what I want to experience."
There was an article in the NYTimes on the weekend. A profile of Peter Gabriel. Gabriel's always been forward thinking on technology, always pushed his music or business strategies in new directions. A lot of those directions haven't paid off. But then again, one just made him 40 million dollars.
I interviewed Peter Gabriel about 15 years ago, in my past life, for a show I was working on at the time. He didn't know where it was going, either, for him. But he wasn't worried. And what do you know? He might not be top of the charts, but it's worked out fine for him.
If you're a creative storyteller, these are your dating years. Don't get married. Have lots of irons in lots of fires, don't get locked in. And if there's a bit of time to fill, well, say a little novena or two for the Canadian types who've ignored the creative world for so long.
Sure, it's ironic that the kind of thinker they need right now is exactly the type of person they've done everything to ignore. Yup, the digital marketers and branders and what have yous are way, way, way behind here, because they've never cultivated anything other than the safe before. You could call that Karma. But I'm going to try not to do that. Don't be so petty as to hate them for it, or to enjoy their coming misfortune. It's sad, and they've got enough to worry about.
Hope, instead, that they find some peace in whatever they wind up doing in their next careers.
And then, when the dust settles, it'll be us, the cockroaches, and Ryan Seacrest standing.
Believe it.


